A Final Look on the Economic Indicators

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

The U.S. international trade gap in September widened to $36.5 billion from $30.7 billion worth of red ink in August. Exports rose 2.9 percent while imports jumped 5.8 percent. The worsening of the trade deficit was led by a wider petroleum shortfall which came in at $20.5 billion compared to $16.6 billion the previous month. The nonpetroleum gap increased to $25.9 billion from $24.3 billion in August. Looking ahead, the sneak peak indicators are mixed. First, there could be a drop in auto imports from Canada as not as many are needed with cash for clunkers having concluded. But a drop in shipments of nondefense capital goods in October could show up in lower capital goods exports. Also, higher oil prices will cut into any potential improvement in the trade gap.

RETAIL SALES

Retail sales in October rebounded 1.4 percent after a revised 2.3 percent fall in September. The October jump in overall sales was led by a 7.4 percent rebound in auto sales after a 14.3 percent plunge in September. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales improved 0.2 percent, following a 0.4 percent rise in September. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales increased 0.3 percent, matching September's gain. Looking ahead indicators are mixed. Motor vehicle sales were up again for November but department store sales were soft for the month as a whole. Net, there likely will be a sizeable rise in retail sales for November, led by autos.

TREASURY BUDGET

The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a massive $176.4 billion deficit in October, the first month of the government's fiscal year. The year-ago October deficit was $155.5 billion. Latest receipts were down a year-on-year 18 percent with outlays up 6 percent. Looking ahead, the month of November typically shows a deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of November has been $68.4 billion and $95.3 billion over the past 5 years. The November 2008 deficit came in at $165.4 billion.

JOBLESS CLAIMS

Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the November 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement. Continuing claims for the November 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent.